Saturday, February 23, 2013

MLB Season Predictions: Colorado Rockies

2012 Record: 64-98
2012 payroll: $84 million
2012 finish, Last place, NL West

2013 Predictions
2013 Record: 69-93
2013 payroll: $73 million


Offseason Action 
You could say without a doubt that the Rockies didn't have very much confidence in their team last season. After a string of injuries to the pitching staff, the Rockies transitioned to a four man pitching staff. And there's a catch, none of the starters were allowed to throw over 75 pitches. And no I'm not kidding, they really went with that strategy.

Needless to say the Rockies pitching staff wasn't too successful. The starters combined ERA was 5.50 with a total win/loss record of 21-47. Colorado tried to bolster their staff a little bit last year by adding Jonathon Sanchez at the trade deadline, but he ended up compiling an 0-3 record with an ERA over 9.00.

The bullpen was actually a positive for the team last season. Four relievers had Era's under 4.00, and closer Rafael Betancourt had 31 saves on a team that had only 64 wins. Even though the bullpen was far better than rotation, the whole "we're going to innovate and have a pitch limit to four starters idea," just did not work and was doomed from the beginning.

The Rockies hired former player Walt Weiss to manage for this season, replacing Jim Tracy, who's "indefinite contract" expired this offseason. The Rockies biggest offseason move this year was trading Alex White, who was the centerpiece of that mutually horried Ubaldo Jimenez trade, to the Astros for an up and coming relief man Wilton Lopez. Colorado made a questionable move not trading Dexter Fowler, a center fielder who had a breakout season last year. He was drawing interest from several teams and they could've gotten some much needed pitching help if a trade had been made.

Reality Check
The Rockies are in trouble this year. Their pitching staff is still embarassing, and it doesn't help that they'll be pitching in Coors Field 81 games a year. The teams number one starter Jorge De La Rosa will be back this season, along with Juan Nicasio and Jhoulys Chacin, but that most likely won't be enough to stop opposing offenses.

The Rockies offense is the complete opposite though. Colorado may have the best lineup in all of baseball with it's combination of speed, power, contact, and on-base percentage.

It all starts with Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Both have been plagued with injury the past four seasons, especially Tulo. But both are entering their late 20's, the prime of their careers. Both players produce tremendous power and contact, while having the speed and quickness to be top tier defenders and their positions. CarGo batted .303 last season with 22 homers and has hit atleast 22 bombs each of the last four seasons. Tulo has a career .292 batting average with two gold gloves, and has hit atleast 24 homeruns four times in his career.

Besides this dynamic duo, the Rockies have a plethora of young talent. Dexter Fowler had a breakout season last year, hitting at a .300 clip. Josh Rutledge and Chris Nelson both showed that they belong at the big league level and have solid skill sets at the plate. Cuddyer and Helton both turned in their usual productive years. And rookie Wilin Rosario slugged 28 homeruns, a club record for a rookie. What makes it even more impressive is that he caught for most of the year, which can add a lot of stress to a rookie's life, trying to handle the pitching staff.

Savior
I like to be optimistic. There's always the chance that a team can break out like the A's or Orioles did last year. But the Rockies are doomed.

If there was one player that could possibly inch the Rockies closer to .500 it would be Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin is expected to be the number two starter for the team this year, and pitched in only 14 games last season due to injuries. But two years ago he threw 192 innings with a 3.62 ERA, and an even lower earned run average the previous season.

The Rockies are no doubt set up for success on the offensive side of the ball. But pitching will be a struggle this year, and if only one pitcher attains a record above .500 it would be a major accomplishment.