Sunday, February 24, 2013

MLB Season Predictions: Arizona Diamondbacks

2012 Record: 81-81
2012 payroll: $77.2 million
2012 finish: Third Place, NL West

Predictions
2013 Record: 74-89
2013 Payroll: $89 million
2013 Finish: Fourth Place, NL West

Offseason Action
The Diamondbacks picked up an astounding 29 wins and an NL West title in the first full season in the desert for general manager Kevin Towers and field manager Kirk Gibson. Sustaining 94-win seasons proved a challenge, however, and by this winter Towers was working back from an 81-81 record and a new division dynamic.

The San Francisco Giants are again World Series champions. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the game's latest trust-fund kids. That leaves the Diamondbacks to operate in their middle class, and to find ways to win in Towers' cleverness, Gibson's standards and a roster's resourcefulness.

So this offseason the Diamondbacks essentially shipped away talent for hard-working, gritty players that would fit in perfectly with manager Kirk Gibson's system. Superstar Justin Upton, who for whatever reason the front office did not like, was traded to Atlanta for all-star left fielder Martin Prado and a flurry of young prospects. Trevor Bauer, the third overall draft pick just two years ago, was dealt to the Indians and all that came back was Didi Gregorious, a young shortstop. Other offseason acquisitions include Cody Ross, Brandon McCarthy, and Eric Hinske.

Reality Check

The Diamondbacks won the NL West two years ago while Justin Upton finished 5th in MVP voting. Last season Upton batted a mere .280 with 17 homeruns, and the D'backs ended up with an 81-81 record. So now with Upton gone, this team consists of zero stars.

The starting rotation could be very good, but injuries may be a problem. Daniel Hudson pitched in only 5 games, and McCarthy missed the last two months of the season after he was drilled on the head by a line drive. Ian Kennedy won 21 games two years ago and slid down to 15 last season, and Trevor Cahill has gone 25-26 over the past two seasons. Between injuries and very inconsistent pitchers, the pitching staff may very well be like a roller coaster ride this season for the team.
The lineup is very well rounded and strong. The outfield consists of Adam Eaton, Gerard Parra, Jason Kubel, and Martin Prado, all more-than capable players at the major league level. In the infield, Aaron Hill should continue his dominance over the past two seasons. Last year he hit .302 with 85 RBI, and at one point in the season hit for the cycle twice in 11 days. Catcher Miguel Montero has risen as one of the best catchers in the National League and entering his age 29 season.

The Diamondbacks have a solid team, but the division they play in has gone to another level without them. The Giants won the world series for the second time in three years, and the Dodgers payroll has ballooned to over $225 million. The Padres have gotten considerably better by not shipping off veteran talent and could very well be the surprise team in baseball.

The D'backs tried to assemble a gritty, tough team that would do whatever it took to win, and they succeeded in that aspect. But they've also lost their best player, and with a shaky pitching staff, the team may take another step back this season.

Savior
If anyone can get the D'backs into contention for the NL West title, it's Paul GoldSchmidt. Two years ago the team made the playoffs when Upton was a superstar at the plate, but last year nobody stepped up to pose a threat in the lineup.

Goldschmidt has tremendous power, hitting 20 homers with a .286/.490/.359 slash line. He also led all first baseman with 18 stolen bases, and improved his defense and range considerably last year.

The D'backs lineup doesn't have very many power threats, and if Goldschmidt can cut down on the strikeouts then he can lead the team. Arizona has players that get on base constantly, which may be very useful for Paul to drive them in and possibly achieve his first 100 RBI season.