2012 Record: 97-65
2012 Payroll: $88.1 Million
2012 Payroll: $88.1 Million
2012 Finish: 1st Place, NL Central
2013 Predictions
Record: 99-63
Finish: 1st Place, NL Central
Offseason Action
The Reds had a well-rounded team last season, capturing the best record in the NL with 97 wins. They were a commanding 9 games ahead of the 2nd place St. Louis Cardinals. After two promising wins in the NLDS against the Giants, the Reds lost the last three games, all at home. And continued on the streak of never winning a playoff game at Great American Ballpark, which opened in 2003.
But the Reds had one gaping hole last year. The leadoff spot in the order.
The Reds had the lowest overall batting average and on base percentage of any team. The combination of Drew Stubbs. Zack Cozart, Xavier Paul, and Brandon Phillips were down right dreadful. If there was one man to blame, it would be Drew Stubbs.
Stubbs batted .214 last year with an embarrassingly low .277 OBP. Stubbs was a former first round draft pick of the Reds organization and with his combination of speed, power, and size it looked like he would blossom into a star. But after five years in the bigs Stubbs has amounted to a career .241 batting average with a plethora of strikeouts.
So with little else to improve this offseason, the Reds tackled their challenge head on. After looking at possible options like Dexter Fowler, Coco Crisp, and even Micheal Bourn, Cincinnati pulled off a three team trade that solved their problem. The Diamondbacks received prospect Didi Gregorious from the Reds, Cleveland acquired Drew Stubbs and Trevor Bauer, and the Reds acquired Outfielder Shin Shoo Choo.
Choo has typically played right field during his career playing on 35 games in center, but he should be average enough there for the reds. Choo is also a great fit for the team, since he had a .377 OBP and .283 average last season, which means he'll get on base enough for the middle of the order to drive him in.
The Reds are also transitioning all-star closer Aroldis Chapman to become a starter. It could either turn out like the Neftali Feliz experiment where there's an injury, or like Chris Sale who won 18 games last season.
Reality Check
The Reds are looking to bounce back from last years postseason collapse against the Giants. And they'll be doing it with an even stronger team.
Last season the Reds knew that Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips would produce well at the plate and lead the team. What they didn't know was that Ryan Ludwick, Todd Frazier, and Zack Cozart would be key contributers as well.
Ryan Ludwick was a star while playing in St Louis, hitting 37 and 33 homers. But since then he's bounced around from Pittsburgh to San Diego, not producing at all. Last season the left fielder had a major comeback, hitting 26 home runs with a .275 average. Todd Frazier stepped up big when Votto was out with a knee injury and finished third in rookie of the year voting. And Zack Cozart was one of the best fielding shortstops in the game, turning double plays with Brandon Phillips that were smooth as silk.
The pitching staff was outstanding last season. Four pitchers had above 10 wins, with Johnny Cueto leading the way with 19 W's. Mat Latos had a great second half and lowered his season ERA to 3.48. Arroyo pitched his usual 200 innings with quality starts. And while Homer Bailey got shelled at home due to the smaller size of Great American, but on the road he was a star, even throwing a no hitter in September against the Pirates.
Cincinnati's bullpen ranked first in the league last season in ERA and wins. In large part because of closer Aroldis Chapman's dominance, but Sean Marshal and mid-season acquisition Jonathon Broxton came up big too.
In a weaker division this year, with St Louis already bothered by injuries and Milwaukee worse than last year, the Reds only improved. They added an above average leadoff man, kept the same outstanding pitching staff, and have a better lineup. The rookies from last season should improve with experience, and the old veteran that brought the team down are gone.
Even if the Chapman experiment fails, worst case scenario is that he goes back to the closer role and picks up where he left off last year. The Reds are the clear frontrunners of their division, and most likely would be considered the best team in the National League as well.
Savior
Joey Votto can hit. A career .316 hitter with an MVP under his belt. Votto led the NL in walks last season, missing 51 games, and has a career .415 OBP. Votto has tremendous power and hits the ball the other way better than pulling it, which is very rare. He's extremely disciplined, and has worked ferociously at improving his fielding to the extent of winning a gold glove two years ago.
But Votto was not himself last postseason. He suffered a torn meniscus in his left knee prior to the all star break, and even with his lengthy recovery he didn't have the power he usual has. In the Reds five game playoff series against the Giants, Votto hit no homeruns and drove in only one run. His lingering injury took away all power from his swing.
The Reds have a solid team this year, but last years postseason showed they can't survive without Joey Votto. If a World Series ring is on the team's mind, then Votto's knee will be key to winning it all.
-Wyatt Smith, Sports Editor, Clickege Media, Inc.
