MLB Season Predictions: San Diego Padres

2012 Record: 76-86
2012 Payroll: $62 million
2012 finish: Fourth Place, NL West

Predictions
2013 Record: 81-81
2013 Payroll: $65 million
2013 finish: Third Place, NL West

Offseason Moves
The Padres took a much different approach to what direction they want to go this season than what people thought they would. With an organization that hasn't gone to the playoffs in five years, most thought the padres would sell valuable players like Huston Street and Chase Headley for some starting pitching help.

But instead the Friars resigned Street and Quentin to long term deals. They resigned veteran pitcher Jason Marquis, and traded for starter Tyson Ross. Chase Headley batted .315 last year with 31 homers and 115 RBI, tops in the National League. His WAR was above 7 and he finished fifth in the MVP voting. In a market where Kevin Youkilis was the top third baseman, Headley could've brought in quite a bit to reassure the future of the team.

But instead the Padres stood pat, not giving him a long term deal nor trading him. They're just expecting him to repeat what he did last year and if he ends up walking into free agency, then the Padres front office can live with that.

As far as the pitching staff goes, last year was a mess. Fifteen pitchers started a game in '13, and twelve started over five games. But this season they feel like Klayton Richard and Edinson Volquez can lead the staff followed by Marquis and later in the season Andrew Cashner. With a great bullpen led by Huston Street and Luke Gregorson, the Padres could have some stability as far as pitching goes.

Reality CheckThe interesting development for the Gaslight Quarter's baseball franchise: by the end of 2012, it could hit but couldn't pitch. The sturdiest among it was an offense that hasn't been in the National League's top 10 in runs since 2007, and even then it was just barely. The ballpark didn't help, of course, but the Padres also weren't developing or acquiring dynamic position players. So every night, it seemed, Black would push his cap back and wonder if he'd ever see another two-run double.

That appears to have changed. Assuming they find five effective – as important, durable – starters, the Padres might just be the NL's sleeper team in 2013. They were 42-33 after the All-Star break (18-10 in August) in spite of the injuries to their rotation. From July 1 on, they were fifth in the league in runs.

Part of that was Headley's breakout season. Also, Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal, both acquired in the Mat Latos trade with Cincinnati, showed some early big-league chops. (Sadly for the Padres, Grandal will miss the season's first 50 games for violating the league's drug policy.) Carlos Quentin didn't see the field until late May, then hit 16 home runs in 86 games, slugging at a higher percentage than Headley. Cameron Maybin had a promising second half.

Also, a top-five farm system has players coming. Jedd Gyorko, a second-rounder from the 2010 draft, demonstrated two things in three minor-league seasons: He'll hit for average and power, and he might not have a position. A third baseman by trade, and so trapped behind Headley, he'll get a chance in spring to win the second-base job.

The Padres are likely to open with a Chris Denorfia/Will Venable platoon in right field. They didn't upgrade there in part because 21-year-old Rymer Liriano should eventually be their man there.

For the first time in years, the Padres shouldn't be an offensive pushover. They'll have to hold on early with a rotation that should return Cory Luebke (Tommy John surgery) by the All-Star break and Andrew Cashner (thumb laceration) in May. A combination of Robbie Erlin, Casey Kelly, Anthony Bass and Ross will have to claim spots in the rotation in the meantime and then pitch well.

The rest will be up to the offense. For the first season in a bunch, that's not so scary.

Savior

The Padres finally have an offense that they can build around. The fences are being moved in at the spacious Petco Park, and there's a potential MVP candidate on the team. With this said, pitching will be the key to San Diego's success this season. Injuries are usually a decent excuse, but that was the entire blame for the Padres last year.

With 15 different pitchers starting a game last season, there needs to be atleast one sturdy, elite pitcher. And this could be Edinson Volquez. Volquez went 11-11 last year with a 4.14 ERA, but just three years ago he went 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA.

Entering his age 28 season, Volquez has shown signs of being the pitcher he once was and hasn't lost any velocity. If Volquez can stay focused and healthy, then leading a shaky pitching staff could make the Padres the surprise team of the MLB.

-Wyatt Smith, Sports Editor, Clickege Media Inc.