Tuesday, March 5, 2013

MLB Season Predictions: Los Angeles Dodgers


2012 Record: 86-76
2012 payroll: $114 million
2012 finish: 2nd place, NL West

Predictions
2013 Record: 94-68
2013 Payroll: $210 Million
2013 Finish: 1st place, NL West


Offseason Action
This offseason new owners Frank McCourt and Magic Johnson, among others, decided to open their checkbooks at will. Ballooning the payroll to $210 million this season, almost $100 million more than last year, the Dodgers were able to acquire some big named players.

One of these players would be Zack Grienke. Grienke, who was the most sought after free agent this offseason, received the largest contract ever for a right handed pitcher at six years $147 million. Clayton Kershaw is the number one starter on this team having won a Cy Young, and posting 2.53 ERA last season. But with an injury prone Chad Billingsley as the number two, the Dodgers front office decided to add another former Cy Young winner to follow Kershaw.

Some of the other offseason acquisitions consist of Korean pitcher Ryu Hyu-Jin, relievers Brandon League and JP Howell, and a trade for utility man Skip Schumaker from the Cardinals.

Two years ago when the Dodgers were bought for a record $2 Billion, James Loney was the first baseman, Casey Blake was the third, and Jaun Rivera played left. Entering this season, Adrian Gonzalez will play first, Hanley Ramirez will most likely play third, and Carl Crawford will man left field.

The Dodgers have eight legitimate starting pitchers this season, including Harang, Chris Capuano, and Ted Lilly. It appears that the Dodgers offseason will continue into spring training with their surplus of pitching.

Reality Check
The Dodgers have extremely high expectations this season. About $250 million worth of expectations.

Last year the Dodgers were up and down because of injuries to star players Matt Kemp and Dee Gordon among others. Late in the season a blockbuster deal went down with the Red Sox, where the Dodgers received Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez. Beckett had a sub .500 record, Crawford played in only 31 games last season, and Adrian Gonzalez's power numbers has declined each of the last three seasons. Some proposed that Ben Cherington should be considered for GM of the year for unloading those horrendous contracts, but the Dodgers didn't care.

Even with those three players spiking the payroll up, the Dodgers felt compelled to spend $23 million on relievers this offseason, along with another $183 on two starting pitchers. The Dodgers lineup consists of five all-star players, all with relatively disappointing seasons last year. Even after their deal with the Red Sox, LA finished the season further away from first place then before the deal.
If Matt Kemp is healthy, then he has a realistic shot at having a 50/50 season like he promised a year ago. Andre Either can be a great hitter, but he needs to be able to consistently hit left handed pitching. Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez both had bad years by their own standards for consecutive seasons. To be fair both have had problems with struggling teams or being traded. But with the Dodgers going all in to win this year, these two should be able to return to all-star form and produce.

The pitching staff isn't assembled just yet, but that isn't an issue. The bullpen looks to be locked in with the free agent signings to go along with Kenley Jansen. Los Angeles may have the best 1-2 punch of starting pitchers in baseball with two superstars in Grienke and Kershaw. Grienke did have an ERA above 3.5 last season, but he's been at a superstar level for almost four years so there shouldn't be any worry.

In a relatively weak division, besides the Giants, the Dodgers should be looking at a playoff bound season, and possibly a deep playoff run as well. The pitching staff is strong and has a good balance of righties and lefties, veterans and young studs. The fielding aspect is superb with the likes of Either, Crawford and Kemp roaming the outfield and a gold glover in Gonzalez at first. The lineup is outstanding all the way down as well.

The only possible downfall of this team would be overspending. It's been seen countless times in sports where too many stars on a team clash and hurt the overall chemistry, a la the Lakers this season in the same town. This star studded team is full of good guys too, but for whatever reason it didn't work last season with this group or some of these players in Boston. It's not too likely, but there should be some concern.

Savior
The day before the Boston Red Sox and Dodgers would come to agreement on a blockbuster trade that would unburden the Red Sox and restock the Dodgers, Crawford underwent Tommy John surgery.

Six months later, the Dodgers are somewhat confident Crawford can be their left fielder, hit first or second in the order, and resume a career that was All-Star caliber in St. Petersburg and tanked in Boston.

A whole Crawford rounds a lineup that struggled to score runs even after Ramirez and Gonzalez (and Shane Victorino) arrived. Kemp, Gonzalez, Ethier and Ramirez will better do their things if Crawford is capable of doing his. For $20 million or more for each of the next five seasons, Crawford's production becomes even more critical, even for the flush Dodgers.

-Wyatt Smith, Sports Editor, Clickege Media